On 23 July, as part of the Support for Climate Change Management project, SENAMHI presented the study on climate scenarios, which describes important aspects of Peru’s climate. This included the characteristics of the climate today, climate trends in recent years, and projections towards 2050, based on global climate scenarios.

As part of the Climate Change Management Support Project – Phase 2, SENAMHI’s Numerical Modelling Department has been conducting the study «Climate Change Scenarios for 2050 Nationwide: Applications in Health, Water and Biomes».

The study will act as a technical instrument guideline, which uses its scientific and technical basis to apply climate data regarding historical trends, extreme events and climate scenario projections. The data will serve as a basis for integrated studies of sector and regional authorities on the impact, vulnerability, risks and adaptation to the effects of climate change, and how it can be applied to develop tools for comprehensive climate change management nationwide.

The webinar participants shared progress on Peru’s long-term 2050 climate projections for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) with a panel of national and international experts, in order to share and discuss other countries’ experience in circulating scientific information to decision-makers and the general public.

It also provided an insight into the importance and use of climate information for comprehensive climate change management tools.

The programme began with welcoming words from Pía Zevallos, director of the Climate Change Management Support Project: «The objective is to circulate the draft, which will be finished by mid-2021, have a discussion of experiences with an international panellist and input from public and private sector panellists» she said.

She was followed by Ken Takahashi, SENAMHI Executive President, who indicated that SENAMHI is formulating regional scenarios for 2036-2065, focusing on 2050, to help decision-making regarding possible climate change effects.

Cristina Rodríguez, the Environment Ministry’s Director of Adaptation to Climate Change and Desertification, said that “to move ahead, climate action cannot stop. Hence the importance of presenting the progress in the studies conducted by SENAMHI».

The Head of Swiss Cooperation, Martin Jaggi, stressed that «the climate change scenarios developed by SENAMHI are important for decision-making in various sectors. That is why it is important that they be publicly accessible, because they are a common good,» he concluded.

A number of thematic conferences were given via the webinar:

1. Recent trends in current climate and its extremes, presented by Gustavo De la Cruz, specialist in SENAMHI’s Atmosphere Numerical Modelling Department, who shared the preliminary results of climate trends and extremes from 1965 to 2019 in Peru.
2. The report on long-term climate change in a global and regional context, presented by Sheylla Sulca, specialist from SENAMHI’s Atmosphere Numerical Modelling Department, which provided a global and regional overview of climate changes.
3. Climate Change Scenarios in Peru to 2050, the keynote conference given by Gerardo Jácome, a specialist at SENAMHI’s Atmosphere Numerical Modelling Department, who shared with participants conceptual and methodological information on climate projections and variations in the annual and seasonal average of maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall to 2050.
4. Scientific communication on climate change scenarios for decision makers and the community in Europe: Switzerland, by Andrea Rossa, a representative MeteoSwiss, who spoke about the effective dissemination of climate information in Switzerland and the Netherlands.
5. The importance of climate change scenarios: The National Adaptation Plan, by María Caballero, an analyst at the Climate Change and Climate Dangers Scenarios of the Environment Ministry’s Climate Change and Desertification Department, who described the scope of the National Adaptation Plan, and the participation of the different stakeholders, contributions and a balance to date.

Following the presentations, the panel discussed the Importance, use and potential applications of climate change scenarios, with Carmen Cruz Gamboa, director of the Health Ministry’s Environmental Health and Food Safety Department; Sigfredo Fonseca, from the National Water Authority’s Quality and Evaluation of Water Resources Department; Juan Carlos Castro Vargas, director of the Agriculture and Irrigation Ministry’s Agricultural Environmental Affairs Department; Marco Pastor Rozas, a specialist with the National Service of Government-Protected Natural Areas; and Carlos Adrianzén, from the National Society of Mining, Petroleum and Energy. The discussion was an excellent opportunity to highlight information on the importance and potential usefulness of climate scenarios in the priority sectors.

To learn more about climate scenarios, their importance and their key and strategic role as a baseline for comprehensive risk management of climate change impacts and for planning at global and regional levels, see:

Links to the report by SENAMHI and the Climate Change Management Support Programme:

Link to the videos of the webinar conferences

About GestionCC

The Climate Change Management Support Project Phase 2 (GestionCC) is an initiative of the Peruvian Ministry of the Environment, financed by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and implemented by the African Climate Fund (ACF) with the support of SouthSouthNorth (SSN) and the NGO Libélula Instituto para el Cambio Global (LBL ONG). Phase 1 of the project was implemented from August 2015 to December 2017. Phase 2 began in December 2018 and is scheduled to end in May 2021.

The objective of phase 2 is to help the Government of Peru to start implementing its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) at the latest by the beginning of 2020, and to share its experience globally (i.e. measures and actions that are in the implementation stage and monitoring and accounting systems in place). The aim is to have a solid basis for ensuring that NDC targets are met thanks to clear institutional agreements, adequate access to funds and information, and empowered stakeholders.

For further information:
Climate Change Management Support Project website: GestionCC
Info graph Climate Scenarios